The number of Medicaid recipients in Arizona rose to more than 2 million this summer, after a five-month surge that mirrored the impact of COVID-19. Experts said the increase was not as large as they had feared, but also said there’s no way to predict what happens next.
This story has been updated to clarify that, while funds for the Parents as Paid Caregivers program are in jeopardy, the entire AHCCCS system is not in danger of running out of funds because of the shortfall.
A program that pays parents to care for their developmentally disabled children is set to run out of funds by the end of this month due to a $122 million budget shortfall.
During a Board of Supervisors meeting Tuesday, Sarah Davis with the County Administrator’s Office said that cuts to Arizona Medicaid to address the budget shortfall would impact more than 60,000 Arizonans, 10,000 of whom are estimated to be in Pima County.
Both parties in the Arizona Legislature want to resolve the issue, but they cannot agree on how to do it.
Meanwhile AHCCCS also faces a greater threat: a budget resolution in Congress that calls for cutting $880 billion from services, potentially including Medicaid.
More than 2 million Arizonans are enrolled in Medicaid, with about 300,000 living in Pima County.
66% of that number consists of traditional enrollees, 26% are within the Prop 204 expansion group, 4% are under the Affordable Care Act expansion group and 4% represent Arizona Long Term Care Services.
37% of all enrollees are children.
“A lot of these expansion populations represent our individuals with co-occurring medical, acute behavioral health substance use needs,” Davis said. “It is a very comprehensive care network for some of our more vulnerable populations and more than one-third of those have claims data tied to multiple of those care needs at one time.”
She emphasized that reducing Medicaid enrollment would leave thousands of county residents without health care coverage.
County officials also estimate about 36,000 lost jobs across multiple industries statewide with each $1.0 billion reduction in Medicaid spending in addition to $1.7 billion in reduced labor income, a $33.7 billion contraction in economic activity overall and $138.1 million decline in state and local tax revenues according to a county memo.
About 5,264 jobs in Pima County could be lost, resulting in a county-level economic output of $542.7 million.
“Cuts to AHCCCS would affect not just the accessibility of care for critical services across these resident groups, it would be harmful to the provider network, hospitals, families, and overall economic impacts across the county,” Davis said.
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